Niceville

Cecil Field, and they won the Girls Elite race. Five-woman average of 19:47.8, spread 1:16.0 — the tightest pack of any team in this top 14. Riley Marise 19:17, Anais Almonte 19:18, Harmony Holland 19:43, Lola Jackson 20:08, Carolina Ramos 20:33, with Delaney Diehl 21:15 and Courtney Gehringer 22:09 behind them.

Here is the striking part: one Niceville girl ran the 2025 state meet. Marise, and she was 19:11.3 there. Almonte, Holland, Jackson and Ramos are all new to the board, four scorers who did not exist in the preseason projection, which is why Niceville was not in the 4A returner top 12 at all and is No. 1 now.

That also means there is no November baseline for four fifths of this team. They beat Creekside head-to-head on the same course on the same afternoon, which is the strongest kind of evidence available in August, and they have the least corroboration of anybody in the top five.

Cecil Field, Elite race, all six back. Average 16:56.8, spread 1:42.0. Bryant Olson 15:44, Reid Sadowski 16:56, Sebastian Riemer 17:17, Brody Mathis 17:21, Carson Jackson 17:26, then Brayden Riemer 17:34 and Christopher Dinan 17:35.

The preseason returner rankings had Niceville as the 4A favorite at 37 points, on six returning state runners and a 0:28.1 spread. On Saturday, Olson took 26 seconds off his state time and the other five ran 16 to 56 seconds slower than theirs, and the spread went to 1:42. Method here is the same for everyone: a team that raced is stuck with what it ran, so they are sixth. At their state-meet fitness they are a top-three team in this class, and there is nothing in one August result that says they are not.

The best team in Florida that can prove it.

19:47.8 average, 1:16 spread — the tightest one-through-five of any ranked team, and the tightest of anyone in Florida averaging under 21:00. Riley Marise 19:17, Anais Almonte 19:18, Harmony Holland 19:43, Lola Jackson 20:08, Carolina Ramos 20:33.

And the fact that makes them the most interesting team on this list: Marise is 30th in the merged field. Niceville ranks second without a single runner inside the top 25, and does it with one returner from the 2025 state meet. They are not in our preseason team projections at all — they did not have the returning bodies to project.

Every other team in the top four is running roughly the group it was expected to run. Niceville built a new one.

The most uncomfortable entry on this page, and the best illustration of what this method does.

Niceville is our projected 4A team favorite at 37 points, built on six returners averaging 16:22.3 with a 0:28.1 spread — a tighter pack on paper than Bishop Kenny's. If they had stayed home, this method would have entered them at 16:22.9 and scored them 237 — third in Florida, ahead of Flagler Palm Coast.

They raced instead. Bryant Olson ran 15:44 for fifth overall, twenty-six seconds better than his state time as a sophomore. Then 16:56, 17:17, 17:21, 17:26 — a 1:42 spread from a group whose state times say 0:28.

Tenth is where the weekend put them. Third is where the paper puts them. The gap between those two numbers is the single largest disagreement on this list, and August is not the month that settles it.

5-man average 19:40.4 · 1-5 spread 0:01.3 · finished 22-23-24-25-26 · Pine Forest (Aug 29)

Anais Almonte 20:04.0 (19:39.8); Harmony Holland 20:04.2 (19:40.0); Riley Marise 20:04.3 (19:40.1); Sophie Clapp 20:05.1 (19:40.9); Carolina Ramos 20:05.3 (19:41.1). Then Lola Jackson 20:08.0 (19:43.8); Avery Selvage 21:34.0 (21:09.8).

5-man average 16:45.9 · 1-5 spread 1:02.7 · finished 13-44-55-59-70 · Pine Forest (Aug 29)

Bryant Olson 16:13.6 (16:02.7); Sebastian Riemer 16:57.5 (16:46.6); Carson Jackson 17:06.8 (16:55.9); Brayden Riemer 17:09.8 (16:58.9); Brody Mathis 17:16.3 (17:05.4). Then Reid Sadowski 17:29.2 (17:18.3); Christopher Dinan 18:21.5 (18:10.6).

Two meets, two wins, and the two of them say slightly different things about the same team.

At Cecil Field they won the girls' elite race with 152 — by two points over Chiles and Creekside, who tied on 154 — with a five-man average of 19:47.8 and a 1:16 spread. That is a race, against the best field in the state, and they won it.

At Pine Forest on August 29 they won with 15 points and the pack finish described above: a converted average of 19:40.4 on a 0:01.3 spread. Anais Almonte, Harmony Holland, Riley Marise, Sophie Clapp and Carolina Ramos, all within a second and a half of each other.

The board takes the better of the two, which is the pack run, and that number should be read for what it is. Their No. 1 ran 19:17.0 at Cecil and jogged 20:04 at Pine Forest; their No. 5 ran 20:33.0 at Cecil and ran 20:05 at Pine Forest. The front is faster than this average and the back is slower. What both races agree on is that no other team in Florida has five girls this close together, and in cross country that is the whole game.

Niceville is not entered at the Florida Horse Park, so the next chance to check this is not next Saturday.

They did the one thing we said they had to do. A week ago Niceville's two-through-five went 16:56, 17:17, 17:21, 17:26 behind Bryant Olson and it cost them. At Pine Forest on August 29 they won with 25 points and a converted average of 16:45.9 on a 1:02.7 spread — Olson 16:13.6, Sebastian Riemer 16:57.5, Carson Jackson 17:06.8, Brayden Riemer 17:09.8, Brody Mathis 17:16.3 raw.

Eighth at Cecil, seventh now, and this is the version of Niceville the preseason projection was built on. Under the swing scenario they are fourth.