Flagler Palm Coast

Spikes & Spurs, and the biggest beneficiary of doing the arithmetic. Raw, their 16:47 average looks like a mid-list team. On a course running 27.8 seconds slow it converts to 16:20.1, second in 4A and third-best in the state.

Douglas Seth's 15:59.5 is worth 15:31.7 at Cecil, the third-fastest converted mark by any 4A boy this weekend. Behind him Dylan Ciardi 16:19.3, Mateo Almeida 16:22.6, Enzo McGovern 16:35.3 and Owen Stackpole 16:51.4, all five inside 1:19.7. They won the meet.

And they had one returner from the 2025 state meet — Seth. Every other scorer on this team is new to the board. That is both the reason to be excited about them and the reason to hold second loosely: there is no November baseline to check any of it against.

Spikes & Spurs, third. Converted average 21:04.3 — better than Hagerty's — and a spread of 3:44.8 that costs them 26 points. Anna Grigoruk 19:28.9, Avery Wisniewski 20:13.4, Everly Mucciolo 21:07.2, Audrey Bowman 21:18.5, then 1:55 to Hailey Brennan 23:13.7.

Grigoruk is 19th in the 4A field and took 22 seconds off her state mark; Mucciolo took 50. Their front four converts to a 20:32.0 average, eighth among the ten ranked teams, so this is not a team carried by its front — it is a team whose fifth runner is 1:55 behind its fourth. Same problem the Flagler boys have, one place further down the page.

Take Spikes & Spurs at face value and Flagler is a 16:47 team average, behind Bolles and well behind Lake Minneola. The course ran 27.8 seconds slow. Convert, and Flagler's average is 16:20.1 — third in Florida, ahead of both.

Douglas Seth's winning 15:59.5 becomes 15:31.7. Behind him Dylan Ciardi, Mateo Almeida, Enzo McGovern and Owen Stackpole all land inside 16:52, and the whole five fits in 1:19.7. They won the meet with 23 points to Ponte Vedra's 54.

They had one returner from the 2025 state meet. There is no history holding this up. It is one Saturday on a course we can price, and it is the strongest single-day performance in Florida outside Cecil Field.

5-man average 16:20.1 · 1-5 spread 1:19.7 · finished 3-20-26-38-52 · Spikes & Spurs

Douglas Seth 15:59.5 (15:31.7); Dylan Ciardi 16:47.1 (16:19.3); Mateo Almeida 16:50.4 (16:22.6); Enzo McGovern 17:03.1 (16:35.3); Owen Stackpole 17:19.2 (16:51.4). Then Evan Johnson 18:03.1 (17:35.3); Brayden Murray 18:57.5 (18:29.7).

5-man average 21:04.3 · 1-5 spread 3:44.8 · finished 15-43-76-87-219 · Spikes & Spurs

Anna Grigoruk 20:02.5 (19:28.9); Avery Wisniewski 20:47.0 (20:13.4); Everly Mucciolo 21:40.8 (21:07.2); Audrey Bowman 21:52.1 (21:18.5); Hailey Brennan 23:47.3 (23:13.7). Then Summer McKinney 24:36.3 (24:02.7); Ayana Henry 25:58.3 (25:24.7).

Just missed

11. Sarasota 446; 12. Buchholz (Gainesville) 453; 13. Beachside (St. Johns) 484; 14. Plant (Tampa) 505.

Spikes & Spurs, converted average 16:20.1, spread 1:19.7. Douglas Seth 15:59.5 raw is worth 15:31.7 at Cecil; Dylan Ciardi, Mateo Almeida, Enzo McGovern and Owen Stackpole all land inside 16:52. They won that meet with 23 points.

Hold this one loosely, and for a specific reason: it rests entirely on the Spikes & Spurs offset, which is the least reliable rating on the board — fourteen runners whose mean says +43.1 and whose median says +16.5, published at +27.8. At the median, Flagler's average is about 16:31 and they are fifth or sixth. They also have exactly one returner from the 2025 state meet. They are entered at the Horse Park, which will finally settle it.

Season average 16:37.1 · 1-5 spread 1:25.8 · finished 8-18-51-55-111 in the class · Horse Park · This week: 2nd at Horse Park (231).

Douglas Seth 15:52.7 (15:57.9); Dylan Ciardi 16:12.3 (16:17.5); Mateo Almeida 16:51.2 (16:56.4); Enzo McGovern 16:51.0 (16:56.2); Owen Stackpole 17:20.5 (17:25.7). Then Evan Johnson 18:00.4 (18:05.6); Brayden Murray 18:39.6 (18:44.8).

Second at the Horse Park with 231, six points ahead of Bolles: Douglas Seth 15:52.7, Dylan Ciardi 16:12.3, Enzo McGovern 16:51.0, Mateo Almeida 16:51.2, Owen Stackpole 17:20.5. Two weeks earlier they won Spikes & Spurs with 23. The best result any 4A team has produced this season, on a course we can rate as well as any in the state, and the Spikes & Spurs question from last week is answered.

Second at the Horse Park with 231, six points ahead of Bolles: Douglas Seth 15:52.7, Dylan Ciardi 16:12.3, Enzo McGovern 16:51.0, Mateo Almeida 16:51.2, Owen Stackpole 17:20.5. Two weeks earlier they won Spikes & Spurs with 23. The season averages 16:37.1. The virtual race alone would put Bolles ahead on spread; the actual race had Flagler ahead by six, and that is what orders them.

Season average 16:37.1 · 1-5 spread 1:25.8 · finished 7-18-52-55-114 in the class

Douglas Seth 15:51.4; Dylan Ciardi 16:18.0; Mateo Almeida 16:48.0; Enzo McGovern 16:51.0; Owen Stackpole 17:17.2.

Did not race. Second at the Horse Park with 231, the Spikes & Spurs win before it. Douglas Seth 15:51.4, Dylan Ciardi 16:18.0, Mateo Almeida 16:48.0, Enzo McGovern 16:51.0, Owen Stackpole 17:17.2. Second, by 66 points over third.

Season average 16:37.1 · 1-5 spread 1:25.8

Douglas Seth 15:51.4; Dylan Ciardi 16:18.0; Mateo Almeida 16:48.0; Enzo McGovern 16:51.0; Owen Stackpole 17:17.2.

Did not race. Second at the Horse Park with 231 and the Spikes & Spurs win before it. Douglas Seth 15:51.4 and Dylan Ciardi 16:18.0 up front, Mateo Almeida and Enzo McGovern inside 16:51, Owen Stackpole at 17:17. Third on the season figure by a distance over the teams behind them.

Season average 16:48.3 · 1-5 spread 1:47.3 · finished 6-29-63-70-149 in the class · This week: 15th of 28 at the Southern Showcase (388).

Douglas Seth 15:48.5; Dylan Ciardi 16:32.7; Enzo McGovern 17:01.6; Mateo Almeida 17:02.9; Owen Stackpole 17:35.8.

Fifteenth of 28 in the Southern Showcase championship race with 388: Douglas Seth thirteenth in 15:20.7, Dylan Ciardi 62nd in 16:18.9, Enzo McGovern 110th in 16:44.5, Mateo Almeida 121st in 16:49.4, Owen Stackpole 161st in 17:25.2. Second to eighth. The average, 16:48.3, is still the fourth-best in the ten; the 1:47.3 spread is the second-widest, and in a class virtual race the third through fifth men are what the score is made of.

Converted average 16:48.3 · 1-5 spread 1:47.3 · finished 6-29-59-66-150 in the class

Douglas Seth 15:48.5; Dylan Ciardi 16:32.7; Enzo McGovern 17:01.6; Mateo Almeida 17:02.9; Owen Stackpole 17:35.8.

Did not race. Fifteenth at the Southern Showcase on Sept. 19, two weeks after finishing second at the Horse Park. Douglas Seth and Dylan Ciardi are a strong front two; the spread behind them is 1:47. Eighth.

Converted average 16:48.3 · 1-5 spread 1:47.3 · finished 6-31-65-71-150 in the class

Douglas Seth 15:48.5; Dylan Ciardi 16:32.7; Enzo McGovern 17:01.6; Mateo Almeida 17:02.9; Owen Stackpole 17:35.8.

Did not race. Fifteenth at the Southern Showcase on September 19. Douglas Seth leads. Seventh.

Converted average 16:45.1 · 1-5 spread 1:30.0 · finished 8-32-34-68-115 in the class

Douglas Seth 15:55.8; Dylan Ciardi 16:38.0; Mateo Almeida 16:40.5; Enzo McGovern 17:05.3; Owen Stackpole 17:25.9.

Third of 25 in Varsity Boys C at Manhattan on Saturday with 123: Seth fourth in 13:08.2, Almeida ninth in 13:17.1, Ciardi 26th, Enzo McGovern 43rd and Owen Stackpole 46th, a front five inside a minute for 2.5 miles. Up from seventh.

Season average 16:45.1 · 1-5 spread 1:30.0

Douglas Seth 15:55.8; Dylan Ciardi 16:38.0; Mateo Almeida 16:40.5; Enzo McGovern 17:05.3; Owen Stackpole 17:25.9.

Ran the Manhattan University Invitational in the Bronx on Saturday in Varsity Boys C, one of six varsity sections, at 2.5 miles: third of 25 teams with 123. Douglas Seth was fourth in 13:08.2, Mateo Almeida ninth in 13:17.1 and Dylan Ciardi 26th in 13:39.9. We convert those times to a 5K (16:04 for Seth) and price the course like any other. Eighth, behind Fort Myers, which holds its place.