Girls 1A Team Rankings — Week 1

Cecil Field. Five-man average 21:19.4, spread 1:27.0.
Kelly Geraghty 20:28, Taylor Geraghty 20:38, Juelle Maaser 21:43, Caleigh Schmoll 21:53, Abby Connors 21:55, Frances Hale 22:13, Ava Nazareno 25:16.

First by one point, and it is a real one point — the closest margin on any class board this week.

Holy Trinity was fourth in the preseason at a 21:13.5 average with a 2:31.4 spread. What changed is the back of the lineup. Against a field that ran 28.8 seconds slow in August, Schmoll came in 42.9 seconds faster than her state time and Hale 63.5 seconds faster — meaning both effectively improved by well over a minute once the conversion is applied. Kelly Geraghty gave back only 15.3 seconds, half the field-wide tax. And Juelle Maaser, who did not run the 2025 state meet at all, slotted straight in at 21:43 as their third.

The result is a 1:27.0 spread, the second-tightest of any team in the top ten, on a squad that raced without Elizabeth Stewart. Abby Connors was the one who struggled, 63.8 seconds off. This is the most complete evidence any 1A girls team produced this month.

Projected average 21:17.0, spread 2:28.2.
Adelyn Lubke 19:21.8, Alexandra Middleton 19:58.7, Sage Bonham 21:04.1, Emma Tress 21:46.2, Makena Webb 21:50.0.

Second in the preseason, second now, one point behind a team that ran. They sent nobody to a girls race on opening weekend.

The projection is strong for a specific reason: Lubke's 19:21.8 is the fourth-fastest returning mark in the class and Middleton backs it at 19:58.7, and Indian Rocks has seven state returners, so unlike several projections below them there is genuine depth behind the scoring five. Their 2:28.2 spread is a full minute worse than Holy Trinity's raced spread, which is exactly why 132 rather than 110.

One point is not a ranking, it is a coin flip that we have to write down in some order. We put the team that raced first. Hold this pair loosely until Indian Rocks enters a meet.

Cecil Field. Five-man average 21:33.6, spread 3:19.0.
Noelle Richardson 19:36, Reese Richardson 21:22, Avery Carvell 21:37, Lauren Sauer 22:18, Isla Oles 22:55, Eleana Nowicki 23:51.

Third in the preseason, third now, and ranked here with their number one runner two minutes off. Avery Carvell ran 19:35.2 at the state meet and 21:37 at Cecil Field, which is 121.8 seconds slower against a 28.8-second expectation.

Everything else went the right way. Noelle Richardson ran 19:36, five seconds faster than her state mark on a day the class averaged half a minute slower — the best single 1A girls performance relative to expectation this weekend. Sauer took 62.7 seconds off. Reese Richardson took 20.2 off.

The 3:19.0 spread is what keeps them at 157 instead of challenging for first, and most of that spread is Carvell's bad day. A healthy Carvell puts this team at roughly 120 points and makes the top of Class 1A a three-way argument.

Cecil Field. Five-man average 21:57.2, spread 2:43.0.
Catherine Staten 20:30, Ella Rose Hanna 20:38, Lillian Hanna 22:40, Olivia Morris 22:45, Eleanor Myers 23:13, Graham Morris 23:25, Xiaoxing Troxell 23:54.

Ninth in the preseason, fourth now, and the improvement is team-wide rather than one runner. Against the 28.8-second tax: Ella Rose Hanna took 97.5 seconds off her state time, Olivia Morris 96.8, Lillian Hanna 76.6. Three girls each improved by more than a minute and a half in real terms.

A note for anyone checking our returner files against the results: Catherine Staten in the Cecil results is the same runner as "Kate Staten" in the returner rankings, 20:04.6 at state. She raced, ran 20:30, and is correctly scored here. She was not a no-show.

Seven runners on the course, seven state returners in the program. This is the deepest 1A girls team in Florida and the one most likely to still be climbing in October.

Projected average 21:53.2, spread 4:12.9.
Reese Allen 19:52.8, Lola Murfee 19:55.1, Alexis Thur de Koos 20:41.6, Macie Bell 22:26.7, Kailyn Simmons 24:05.7.

Fifth in the preseason, fifth now, and did not race. The front three are the best projected trio in the class after Indian Rocks — three girls inside 20:42 — and then it falls apart: a 1:45 gap to Bell and another 1:39 to Simmons, for a 4:12.9 spread that is the worst in this top ten by more than fifty seconds.

Projections flatter teams shaped like this, because the fourth and fifth runners are frozen at their November form while everyone who raced had to prove it in August heat. Read Oak Hall's fifth place as a ceiling.

Cecil Field. Five-man average 21:57.8, spread 3:51.0.
Emma Akhundjanov 19:43, Sara Palmer 21:02, Katie Cunningham 22:12, Leeza Loftin 23:18, Lyla Frady 23:34, Gigi Akhundjanov 24:03, Calah Drake 25:08.

First in the preseason. Sixth now. The biggest drop on any 1A board this week, and it happened because they showed up.

Providence entered six of their seven state returners at Cecil Field. Only Maggy Koenig, their projected number two at 20:07.8, was missing. Here is what the other five did against a 28.8-second expectation:

| Runner | 2025 state | Cecil Field | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Akhundjanov | 20:18.6 | 19:43 | −35.6 |
| Sara Palmer | 19:57.5 | 21:02 | +64.5 |
| Katie Cunningham | 20:39.0 | 22:12 | +93.0 |
| Leeza Loftin | 21:33.3 | 23:18 | +104.7 |
| Lyla Frady | 22:23.9 | 23:34 | +70.1 |

One runner improved by 35 seconds. Four gave back between 70 and 105 seconds when the class average was 29. Their preseason 1:35.8 spread — the tightest projection in 1A — opened to 3:51.0 on the course.

We are not going to dress this up. A team that races in August and runs badly is treated worse by this method than a team that stays home, and Providence is the clearest case of it in the state. It is also true that they ran badly. The preseason number said 20:31.2; the course said 21:57.8. Both are data, and only one of them is from this year.

Cecil Field. Five-man average 21:55.4, spread 3:41.0.
Faith Dykens 20:23, Abigail Love 20:45, Molly Kline 20:49, Elle Zimmer 23:36, Peyton Leavitt 24:04, Olivia Zimmer 24:51.

Eighth in the preseason, seventh now, and structurally the strangest team in the class: three girls inside 26 seconds of each other at 20:23, 20:45 and 20:49, and then a 2:47 gap to the fourth.

That front three would score with anyone — it is better than what Holy Trinity or Westminster put on the course. The four and five are what turn a potential 130-point team into a 229-point one. Cornerstone does not need improvement so much as it needs a fourth runner to appear.

Cecil Field. Five-man average 22:32.6, spread 1:48.0.
Lilly Bell 21:42, Madison McVay 21:55, Ava Wenleder 22:08, Marguerite Miller 23:28, Abigail Stephens 23:30, Mackenzie McVay 23:47, Mary Price 25:23.

Zero returners from the 2025 state meet. Maclay's girls had no preseason team ranking, no projected score, and no presence in the returner data at all. They are eighth in Class 1A.

Their 1:48.0 spread is the third-tightest in the top ten, built on a three-girl block inside 26 seconds and no runner in the scoring five slower than 23:30. Seven finishers. This is a program that assembled a full team over the summer and it is not visible in any preseason document anywhere.

Lemon Bay. Five-man average 22:19.6, spread 4:08.8.
Ayla Tobias 20:30.6, Jayden Wilkins 20:35.8, Noelani Love 22:43.0, Julianna Idle 23:09.4, Shiloah Love 24:39.4, Rileigh Bell 24:55.1.

The other team that did not exist in July. Zero girls at the 2025 state meet, no preseason ranking, ninth in Class 1A now — and their boys did the same thing, ranking sixth on a fifty-second spread. Something is happening at that school.

Tobias and Wilkins ran within five seconds of each other at 20:30 and 20:35 converted, which is a top-ten 1A pair. Then a 2:07 gap, and a 4:08.8 spread that is the second-worst in this top ten. Lemon Bay grades within a second of Cecil Field for girls on a sample of seventeen, so their conversion is among the more trustworthy on this board even though the meet was small.

Projected average 22:25.3, spread 5:52.7.
Rachel Judy 18:46.6, Avery Gervais 21:54.9, Amelia Gogley 21:59.2, Haleigh Silver 22:22.5, Amanda Rodriguez 24:39.3.

Sixth in the preseason, tenth now, and the widest spread of any ranked team in Class 1A — 5:52.7 from one to five. Rachel Judy's 18:46.6 is the second-fastest returning mark in the class and it is worth almost nothing to a team score when the second runner is three minutes behind her.

Exactly five returners, so no displacement and no margin. They did not race.