Lainee Mercer

The best returning credential in the class behind Tomasic, and the one runner on this list whose ranking is lower than her November résumé. Mercer was third in 3A at state in 18:15.3 — 58 seconds better than Wilcox and 59 better than Hallick — and she opened by finishing second at the Ragin' Storm XC Challenge in 19:11.3, behind Natalia Gaona-Zelaya of Wiregrass Ranch, who is one of the four or five best girls in the state. That course took 35.2 seconds off 23 returners, which prices her at 18:36.1, about eight seconds better than her state mark.

Eight seconds of improvement is the smallest gain by any of the four girls in this top five who actually raced, and it came in a race that asked her one question and then left her alone. That is why she sits behind two runners she would have beaten by the better part of a minute last fall. She has the highest ceiling of the three and the least evidence for it; a Cecil-caliber field is all it would take. Springstead ranks 29th in 3A.